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By Fabio G. Nunes, poultry processing consultant, Brazil
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The world population will grow and will reach an astonishing 8 billion people by 2030 from about 6.1 billion in 2000, a 150% growth in 30 years. Percentage wise this expansion will be the highest ever in Africa, with 175% population growth from 800 million to 1.4 billion, while on the other continents the expansion will vary from 32% to 40%.However, considering the population size, Asia, as whole, will be the leading continent, with a population of 4.1 billion people in 2030, equivalent to 60.5% of the world’s population. In the same time frame the world’s population will age as well. By 2030, the average population’s age in the European Union will be about 44 years, in North America and Oceania around 38 years, Latin America & Caribbean and Asia, around 32 and Africa, the youngest continent, then, around 22 years. Also the urbanisation population rate will change dramatically through to 2030, when 75% of it, or 5 billion people, approximately, will be living in urban areas, from just 25%, in 1950, while some 3.2 billion will be living in rural areas.
This dramatic change in the rate of urbanisation in the future brings some reflections but it is not yet consistently addressed, or evaluated. The world will have fewer people in the countryside to produce the feed and food that will be demanded by the growth in population and to cope with the challenges posed by the change in their corresponding diets.
Growing incomes
Regarding economy, the forecasts are quite exciting, as global population will become richer. The average world GDP per capita emerges from US$ 4,535, in 1990, to US$ 6,103, in 2010 to finally reach as high as US$ 11,248, in 2050, a growth of 148% for a corresponding growth of approximately 72% in the population’s size. China and India will lead, by far, in terms of GDP annual growth rate in the years to come, followed by Latin America, Mexico, Middle-East and South Korea, in this order, with a more modest annual rate.
Regarding economy, the forecasts are quite exciting, as global population will become richer. The average world GDP per capita emerges from US$ 4,535, in 1990, to US$ 6,103, in 2010 to finally reach as high as US$ 11,248, in 2050, a growth of 148% for a corresponding growth of approximately 72% in the population’s size. China and India will lead, by far, in terms of GDP annual growth rate in the years to come, followed by Latin America, Mexico, Middle-East and South Korea, in this order, with a more modest annual rate.
In developed countries, with mature markets, an even smaller growth is expected. In the stream of the GDP performance, income growth will be seen in developing countries (around 5.5%) much more than in developed countries (around 2%) and well above the world’s average (some 3.3%). Benefiting from the world enrichment, the population living with a US$ 1/day or less will be cut by half, to 749 million, in 2015, or 13.2% of the world’s population, from 1.269 billion, in 1990, or 32% of the world’s population. East Asia and South Asia will experience the most dramatic decline, both in number of people and corresponding percentage of their populations, followed by Latin America. In Sub-Saharan Africa the number of people in this category is forecasted to increase in size, but decline in the corresponding percentage of its population.
Up scaling of diets
The immediate reflection of the economic improvement of those populations is the expected upscaling of their diets. People will start eating more, increasing the daily caloric intake. By increasing the calories intake world hunger will hopefully decline in those regions, particularly in South and East Asia, where the size of the undernourished population must plummet. The undernourished population will likely decline in Latin America, while in Sub-Saharan Africa, Near East and Northern Africa it will tend to be somewhat stable, with small variation in size over time.
The immediate reflection of the economic improvement of those populations is the expected upscaling of their diets. People will start eating more, increasing the daily caloric intake. By increasing the calories intake world hunger will hopefully decline in those regions, particularly in South and East Asia, where the size of the undernourished population must plummet. The undernourished population will likely decline in Latin America, while in Sub-Saharan Africa, Near East and Northern Africa it will tend to be somewhat stable, with small variation in size over time.
According to FAO, the world’s population average caloric intake will reach some 3,000 kcal/day, in 2030, from 2,600 kcal/day, in 1997-99, and about 2,000 kcal/day, in 1964-66. This calorie intake augument is be mostly fueled by the increased consumption of wheat, vegetable oils and meats, in general. Asia will lead growth, with annual demand for meats coming from 115 million tonnes, in 2007, to 149 million, in 2017, a 30% rise; in the sequence comes Latin America (from 37 to 47 million tonnes, or 27%); EU (from 58 to 65 million tonnes, or 12%); North America (from 44 to 48 million tonnes, or 7%) and Oceania (stagnated in 3 million tonnes in the period, with no growth in demand).
Yet the percentage growth in meat demand in developing countries must triumph over that in developed countries, the meat consumption per capita in developed countries will grow more and become almost three times higher - 70 kg/per capita/yr - than in developing countries - 30 kg/per capita/yr - which will experience, additionally, an important asymmetry across the continents over time, with Latin America consuming 60 kg/per capita, Asia, some 28 kg/per capita and Africa 10 kg/per capita of meat, annually, by 2020. Taking all of these changes into account, chicken meat consumption per capita should grow by 20% in developing countries and around 12% in developed countries, leaving behind pork, lamb and beef, and ascending from an opaque position in 1964-66, to become a front-runner, along with pork, in 2030.Page 1 of 3 | Next Page »
Source: World Poultry, Vol. 27, No. 6
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